Suburb Overview
Over the past year, Box Hill has solidified its status as a premier metropolitan activity center, with the townhouse market outperforming high-rise apartments due to a severe shortage of “missing middle” housing and the upcoming Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) East driving investor sentiment. While detached house medians sit around $1.72M, the townhouse segment has seen robust demand from families and downsizers seeking premium school zoning (Box Hill High) and land-rich assets, leading to price growth of approximately 7–11% in the medium-density sector. A key comparable sale for the development is a 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom townhouse that sold for $1,265,000 in August 2025; additionally, new off-the-plan French Provincial townhouses are currently testing the upper end of the market, indicating that high-spec finishes and architectural facades continue to command a significant premium in this specific pocket.
5-unit option
- Complies with council minimum 300 sqm lot size.
- Lower build cost and lower overall risk.
- Total revenue is around $5.6m.
- Only supports about $600k land offer.
- That land offer is well below market value.
This is the “safe but weak” scheme. It works technically. It just doesn’t stretch financially. The landowner won’t be excited.
8-unit option
- Higher density, more aggressive use of the site.
- Higher revenue at around $7.75m.
- Higher construction and development costs.
- Still delivers enough margin to support a stronger land offer, while keeping it slightly below full market value.
This is the “push the envelope” scheme. More risk, more moving parts, but better financial leverage.
Conclusion
The 5-unit scheme is compliant but financially underpowered. It only justifies about a $600k offer, which is significantly below market value — unlikely to secure the deal.
The 8-unit scheme generates enough profit to make the project viable and still leave room to offer the vendor a reasonable — but slightly conservative — price. It gives you negotiating strength while preserving developer margin.
No go for this project.